Флориан Хайнеманн #4 — Макроэкономическая перспектива корпоративных акселераторов

Сегодня представляем четвертую обзорную статью, основанную на исследовании Флорианом Хайнеманном природы и рынка корпоративных акселераторов. И в этой части рассмотрим макроэкономические тренды, темпы роста и перспективы данной отрасли.

Что касается истории возникновения корпоративных акселераторов, причины их появления точно никем не определены, но, проведя параллели с циклом активности привычных и понятных нам венчурных фондов, можно сделать вывод, что, как после лопнувшего пузыря доткомов в начале нулевых, так и после финансового кризиса 2008 года, венчурные инвестиции не только снижались в своём объёме, но и перемещались в сторону вхождения в проект на более поздних стадиях. Проще говоря, инвесторы самоотстранялись непосредственно от венчура и старались минимизировать риски, что привело к поиску новых, ранее массово не опробованных инструментов инвестирования. Одним из таких решений и стала попытка крупных корпораций максимально приблизить инновации к себе — вложиться в проекты на ранних стадиях, пока это относительно дёшево, чтобы в будущем наверняка иметь доступ к передовым технологиям, актуальным для большого бизнеса, повысить свой инновационный потенциал и уровень конкурентоспособности. К тому же, корпоративные акселераторы — хороший инструмент диверсификации рисков при расширении основного бизнеса. В добавок то же время начался бум бизнес-инкубаторов, в лице которых более мелкие коммерческие структуры и университеты стремились сделать то же самое, что и акселераторы, но, как правило, исключительно в целях снятия сливок, невольно подогревая моду на подобные проекты.

Согласно исследованию Хайнеманна, рост количества корпоративных акселераторов, бурно продолжавшийся с 2005 года, замедлился после 2012го, как показано на графике. Хотя стоит заметить, что здесь учтены далеко не все акселераторы, поскольку для трети исследуемых не определена дата их образования.

График 1: Развитие корпоративных акселераторов в период 2005 — 2014 гг.

Здесь же продемонстрировано и возникновение различных программ в рамках одного акселератора, то есть, собственно, разделение понятий программы акселерации и непосредственно корпоративного акселератора.

Интересно, что таким же S-образным графиком, как правило, описывается и появление какой-либо новой технологии — экспоненциальный рост с последующим замедлением. А дальше возможны варианты: либо новый виток технологии повторит резкий рост и образует новую «волну» на графике, либо случится столь же резкое падение в виду потери актуальности данной технологии. Как сложится в случае акселераторов предсказывать слишком рано, но уже можно выделить как минимум два фактора, способных повлиять на темпы роста — нехватка достойных менторов и отсутствие талантливых стартапов. К тому же, корпоративным придётся конкурировать с некорпоративными акселераторами, что может привести к более ранней стагнации первых, относительно последних. Интересно будет пронаблюдать, найдут ли в будущем корпоративные акселераторы пути преодоления такой конкуренции, а пока же рынок недостаточно насыщен, и мы всё ещё наблюдаем рост с отличными перспективами, особенно в РФ.

Что же касается самого развитого рынка корпоративных акселераторов, хорошо отображающего общие тенденции в этой сфере, а именно рынка США, то он уже куда более насыщен, и составляет к 2017 году 25 миллиардов долларов (в 10 раз больше рынка РФ). И здесь уже можно говорить об общих тенденциях и делать первые выводы, особенно относительно инвестиционных портфелей корпоративных акселераторов. Так, согласно исследованию Национальной Ассоциации Венчурного Капитала, в 2014 году IT-стартапы получили инвестиции в размере 2,5 миллиардов долларов. На втором месте с 810 миллионами расположилась сфера биотехнологий, а третье отошло индустрии медиа и развлечений с 681 миллионом долларов. А в проведённом Гэри Душницким и Майклом Леноксом анализе венчурной индустрии говорится о том, что с 1990 года общий объём инвестиций в две отрасли — IT и фармацевтику — превышает 80%. Вывод, в общем-то, простой — корпоративные акселераторы в подавляющем большинстве склонны инвестировать в те же отрасли, что и обычные венчурные фонды и прочие бизнес-инкубаторы.

И хотя большинство некорпоративных акселераторов и бизнес-инкубаторов заявляют об открытости для стартапов из любой отрасли, как показывает практика, и это логично, в большинстве своём они привлекают проекты из высокотехнологичных сфер — превалируют программное обеспечение, мобильные приложения, социальные сети. Но за ростом количества акселераторов возрос и охват более узкопрофильных отраслей — здравоохранение, финтех, энергетика, образование, биотех. И всё же и тут зачастую идёт соединение вышеуказанных отраслей с программный обеспечением. Это объяснимо как общим трендом на компьютеризацию всего, чего только можно, так и тем, что за отведённое на программу акселерации время, IT-стартапы способны показать максимально быстрое развитие.

Другой вывод, который можно сделать, изучив самые развитые рынки, касается выживаемости подобных программ. Около 45 всех корпоративных акселераторов, из 60 рассмотренных автором (75%), на момент публикации статьи в сентябре 2015 года были действующими (среди которых и 3 самые старые со времени их запуска), а 19 из них протекали в то самое время. Неудивительно, что с течением времени выживаемость акселераторов повышается. Говорит это как о более глубоко проработанных программах работы со стартапами, так и о переходе корпораций от нейтрального отношения к явлению корпоративных акселераторов в сторону позитивного. И все же иногда, чтобы не только выжить, но и продолжать движение вперёд, некоторые из них с течением времени меняют свои стратегии. Так, например, Microsoft запустила свой первый акселератор в сотрудничестве с Techstars, но в дальнейшем отказалась от этого подхода и сосредоточилась на проекте со своим единоличным участием. А Telefónica свела несколько своих независимых инновационных инициатив в одну отдельную структуру.

Чтобы понять реальный текущий (на момент августа 2015 г.) охват корпоративными акселераторами крупных структур, в своём исследовании Хайнеманн обращается к спискам S&P 500 USA и S&P 350 Europe и, рассмотрев компании из данных отчётов, приводит статистику, что 5,1 процент всех упомянутых там компаний имели опыт инвестирования в собственный корпоративный акселератор. При этом к концу 2015 года ожидался рост индустрии на 40%. Из полученных цифр следует вывод, что корпоративные акселераторы так ещё и не стали полноценным мейнстримом среди крупных корпораций. Но общие тенденции распространения и выживаемости корпоративных акселераторов позволяют сделать предположение о том, что в будущем они совершенно справедливо станут для крупных корпораций стратегическим выбором №1 в качестве инструмента инвестирование в собственное будущее развитие.

На этом выводе на сегодня всё. Оставайтесь на связи!

А если вы хотите самостоятельно успешно анализировать рынки и разбираться во всех технических, юридических и финансовых тонкостях крупных сделок, добро пожаловать в нашу Евразийскую Венчурную Академию : http://eva.academy/

Ваш менеджер корпоративных проектов EVA Innovations,
Александр Белов


Статья #1 — Вопросы корпоративной акселерации

Статья #2 — Отличие акселератора от венчурного фонда

Статья #3 — Критерии корпоративных акселераторов

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